Brief

Defense contractors, aerospace, gold, oil. The portfolio you hope never does well.

Global defense spending hit $2.4 trillion in 2024, the highest since WWII. NATO allies are scrambling to meet 2% GDP targets after years of underinvestment. Lockheed and RTX have multi-decade order backlogs. Gold acts as crisis insurance. This portfolio profits from geopolitical instability, military modernization, and energy supply disruption. The uncomfortable trade: the worse the world gets, the better this does.